The five Republican candidates running against frontrunner Kari Lake in the GOP primary to replace Gov. Doug Ducey cannot beat her. But perhaps one can.

Another round of polling last week shows Lake holding a commanding lead over the GOP primary field, with roughly a third of likely primary voters already backing her.

And while Karrin Taylor Robson may be picking up some steam with the still-huge number of undecided voters, it appears Lake’s basement-level of support among GOP voters is probably somewhere above 30%.

Lake likely won’t plunge below that number on Election Day, and she could very well come in at 50% or more. But in a six-way race, even 30% of the electorate can be more than enough to win.

If anyone is going to beat her in a GOP primary, it’ll require a clear breakout star to conglomerate support from the remaining undecided voters, and even then, it’ll probably require at least one of the top tier candidates to drop out.

But money and ego are the lifeblood of any political campaign, and with a field of self-funders and vanity campaigns, dropping out for the greater good is a tough sell.

Paola “Z” Tulliani-Zen has already loaned her campaign $1.2 million from her biscotti fortune and has made clear she doesn’t intend to leave the race, even if she’s a longshot.

Scott Neely loaned his campaign $37,000 so far. It’s all he’s raised, and it’s certainly not enough to run a real campaign, but it was enough to get his name on the ballot1. Neither he nor Tulliani-Zen have been included in polling about the race.
Steve Gaynor self-funded his 2018 campaign for secretary of state to the tune of $4 million, and he’s already dropped $5 million of his own money into his campaign coffers this year. Polling shows his support solidly in the single digits.

Karrin Taylor Robson has pumped nearly $2 million of her own money into her campaign and is the only other self-funder who has actually raised money: She brought in $1.7 million from individual contributors as of the January reporting period. She’s polling somewhere between 10% and 20%, depending on the poll.

Rounding out the pack is Matt Salmon, who cannot self-fund a viable campaign, but has brought in $1.2 million from contributors as of January. Somewhere around 5% to 12% of the electorate chooses him in polls.

To be clear, Neely and Tulliani-Zen don’t represent much of a threat to Lake. But their presence on the ballot will probably be enough to pick off a few percent of voters, and that tiny sliver of the electorate can make or break Lake’s closest competitor2.

But the field of viable candidates needs to winnow to at least a big three for anyone to edge out Lake. Salmon’s people want Gaynor to drop out, noting he’s polling the lowest. Gaynor’s people think Salmon should throw in the towel, saying he doesn’t have the money to remain viable. And Taylor Robson’s camp is happy she spent enough of her own money to ensure they’re not on the chopping block.

It seems clear each of the non-Lake candidates would rather see one of their own as the governor rather than Lake. But none of them want to blink first and concede they can’t be the one to beat her.

A familiar name reappears: The New York Times’ Alan Feuer yesterday broke a big story with a little Arizona angle. A week before the Jan. 6 attack on Congress, Jason Sullivan, a one-time aide to Trump campaign strategist and pardon recipient Roger Stone, urged Trump supporters on a conference call to “descend on the Capitol” and “make those people feel it inside.” Arizona Republican activist and reformed Stop the Stealer Staci Burk taped the call and turned it over to the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 crimes, the Times reports.

Brahm Resnik @brahmresnik

They tried to tell us: @hankdeanlight & @rachelleingang captured the moment when Stacy Burk lost faith in Stop the Steal.

She spread election conspiracies. It ruined her life.How one of Arizona’s top Stop the Steal activists came to believe the real conspiracy is to promote the hoax of election fraudarizonaagenda.substack.com

We reached out to the New York Times to see if they’d link to our lil newsletter’s story about Burk. They said they loved the piece and they “definitely” would next time. Toss us $8 or we might not be around to see the next time. And if you want to spread the word about being ahead of the Burk curve, tweeting about the Agenda always help us, too.

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David beats Goliath: The Arizona Corporation Commission voted against a plan from Salt River Project to expand a natural gas plant in Coolidge because of potential negative impacts to the surrounding community, including pushback from a historically Black community called Randolph that made headlines locally and nationally in opposition to the expansion, ABC15’s Courtney Holmes reports.

COVID-19 collection: COVID-19 took a toll on children’s mental health as kids lost some of the structure and independence they got outside their homes, the Republic’s Yana Kunichoff reports. But the youth told Kunichoff they found ways to cope and to get adults to understand what they’re going through. In other COVID-19 news, the state’s dashboard will include less information now that the emergency declaration is over. And in Sonora, Mexico, a graduate student named Luis Armando Moreno became the preeminent source of COVID-19 data and analysis, KJZZ’s Murphy Woodhouse reports.

Nathan Davis @davisforaz

Arizonans: Hey the AC at my daughter’s school doesn’t work all the time and the playground equipment is really old. Do you think we can spend a bit more to fix our schools? Ducey: What if we just give her quiet time? https://t.co/IwBxuiiJOi

The 9th Floor @9thFloorAZ

Gov. @DougDucey signed #HB2707 into law today, ensuring Arizona kids have time at the beginning of each school day to take a moment of silence. ✍️

When in doubt, call it grooming: A bill from Arizona Rep. Jake Hoffman to ban sexually explicit books in schools, which Hoffman claimed were part of “grooming” children (the term du jour for MAGAs), would not protect children, an researcher whose work Hoffman cited told 12News’ Brahm Resnik.

Boring is the new survival: Leah Askarinam of The New York Times’ “On Politics” newsletter has a smart take on Arizona’s most boring member of congress: Democratic U.S. Rep. Tom O’Halleran, who may or may not be able to hold onto his slightly more Republican district again this cycle, but who can definitely work a smooth fire containment reference into an interview.

How Finchem got his ideas taken seriously: The U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s cybersecurity team leaped into action over a form email that Republican State Representative and Trump-endorsed secretary of state candidate Mark Finchem sent them in 2020 requesting a “full spectrum forensic examination” of voting machines and suggesting eventual Cyber Ninjas subcontractor CyFIR do the job, Politico reported, drawing on documents obtained via a lawsuit from American Oversight.

Arizona isn’t alone: This legislation tracker from think tank FutureEd shows dozens of bills in more than half of states, including several in Arizona, that relate to so-called “parent’s rights” bills that allow for more parental control over classrooms and teaching materials.

Water and power: On the Navajo Nation, where a lack of water means more dry land and eroded canyons, volunteers and consultants are finding ways to combat climate change, Cronkite News’ Fiona L.Q. Flaherty reports. Meanwhile, utility crews are working to extend electricity to families who’ve lived without it in the third year of a project called Light Up Navajo, the Arizona Mirror’s Shondiin Silversmith reports.

Jen Fifield @JenAFifield

‘Announces prosecutions’ on a handful of cases the state was already prosecuting ... before his review. I asked his office if there are others but didn’t get a reply. This got 1,000 shares.

Helping those in need: A Mesa church has brought in migrants seeking asylum who immigration officials drop off in town, KTAR’s Griselda Zetino reports. Once at Iglesias Cristiana El Buen Pastor, they have a place to stay and get resources like meals, clothes, COVID-19 vaccines and legal help. The church expects to aid more migrants after Title 42 gets lifted in May. Meanwhile, those crossing the border still face a dangerous desert journey that can turn deadly, the Nogales International’s Angela Gervasi reports.

The same, but with better math3: The Republic’s Laurie Roberts opined on Democrats’ plan to not win the state House, noting Dem insiders consider it somewhere between incompetent and stupid.

Delay the inevitable: The new voter proof-of-citizenship law might not go into effect until after the 2022 election, if a House measure to delay the effective date of the legislation gets approval from the Senate and Gov. Doug Ducey, the Associated Press reports.

Any day you don’t curse on NPR is a good day: Hank spoke to KJZZ’s Lauren Gilger on “The Show” about the Democratic Party’s letter asking Attorney General Mark Brnovich to investigate the Independent Redistricting Commission.

Fungus among us: Arizona researchers got a $3.1 million grant from the Arizona Board of Regents to study Valley Fever, a disease caused by a fungus in the soil that more Arizonans get sick from than people in any other state, the Arizona Center for Investigative Reporting’s Maria Polletta reports. The grant is the “largest state investment targeting the respiratory disease in recent Arizona history,” Polletta writes.

NEW MUSHROOM ALERT: A University of Arizona student found the first documented Arizona instance of a rare purple mushroom.

You know Arizona’s license plate proliferation problem has gotten out of hand when the state dedicates a plate to local rocker (and Matt Salmon fan turned Kari Lake fan 4) Alice Cooper.

Phoenix New Times culture editor Jennifer Goldberg zeroed in on Republican Rep. Joseph Chaplik’s House Bill 2615, which Gov. Doug Ducey signed into law last week. It will create a new “youth music and art” license plate bearing Cooper’s image. The proceeds will go to Solid Rock Teen Centers, which Cooper founded.

We thoroughly enjoy watching Republican Sen. Paul Boyer live out his IDGAF phase now that he’s decided to retire from politics.

Republicans have 16 members in the Arizona Senate, the bare minimum to pass a bill or a budget. Boyer has stood opposed to a bunch of the audit-inspired legislation Senate President Karen Fann has made her priority this year. And he said he won’t support a budget unless it funds K-12 education to the tune of $1 billion, roughly what Prop 208 would have brought in.

So Fann just stopped talking to him. Instead, she tweets mean things about him and he trolls her right back. A very functional workplace!

Paul "nothing but trouble" Boyer @PaulDBoyer

Sad! Not good!

Karen Fann @FannKfann

@NancyGo22432376 @PaulDBoyer @AZSenateGOP Committees are over with so that does no good

1

Neely filed a little more than 10,000 signatures to qualify for the ballot, giving him a 40% cushion against any potential challenges. That is usually considered a safe number, but he’s the closest to the minimum, so could still face a petition challenge in court.

2

There is no statewide deadline to print ballots, but counties usually start in late May or early June. If a candidate withdraws before ballots are printed, county officials will take their names off the ballot. Otherwise, they post a list of withdrawn candidates at the polls.

3

We screwed up our math in yesterday’s email declaring that Democratic Party can only win 29 seats in the House if all its candidates in competitive districts win. Democrats can win 30 seats, enough to tie the chamber, but still not enough to win it.

4

We’d still love to interview Cooper about his politics, but we haven’t been able to get in touch with him or his people yet. If you’re somehow in a position to make that happen, email us!

Arizona Agenda

The Daily Agenda: One challenger to rule them…