The (political) chain of command
Will Republicans break ranks or tank an abortion law repeal? … How many people actually get abortions? … And do lawmakers do any real work?
Word at the Capitol is that plenty of Republicans are willing to join with Democrats and pass a bill repealing Arizona’s newly reinstated territorial-era ban on abortions out of the state House today.
But that sentence should come with one big caveat: Getting that repeal bill to a floor vote is still a problem.
In order to force a vote, those same Republicans who support a repeal of the 1864 law would have to vote with Democrats on a procedural motion to suspend the House rules.
And if there’s one sin that’s worse to Republicans than breaking with their party on abortion, it’s breaking with their party on procedural motions.
We told you on Thursday1 about the procedural maneuvering behind last week’s attempt to bring a Democratic bill repealing the 1864 law to the House floor for a vote, and why it failed.
The short version is if the repeal bill goes up on the board for a vote, it’ll pass. A handful of Republicans in swing districts or those who genuinely don’t like it will join with Democrats to approve it. It only requires two Republicans in each chamber to pass2, and there are currently at least four Republicans in each chamber who are willing to repeal the law, even if it means breaking with their party on something as controversial and polarizing as abortion.
But last week’s effort failed because there weren’t two Republicans willing to change the rules to bring it to a vote. Republican Rep. Matt Gress was the only one willing to buck his party — and even then, only when he was officially on the record — to force a vote.
We rattled off the list3 of House Republicans who are allegedly supporting a repeal to Republican Rep. David Cook — and he confirmed the names. But Cook, who is openly supporting a repeal, then posed his own question to us:
“The first step is you're going to have to roll your own caucus and your leadership — and where are those votes coming from?” he asked. “All the people you just mentioned, except Matt Gress, have never rolled their own leadership … I'm not starting tomorrow. I've never left my caucus. But when a bill hits the board, I vote my conscience.”
Much like breaking chain of command in the military, breaking with your party on process is considered one of the gravest sins a good soldier Republican lawmaker can commit. If two Republicans could side with Democrats any time they disagreed with party leaders, it would undermine the rule of the majority party. There would be chaos, the argument goes.
Cook also wouldn’t commit to opposing the plan that Republican leaders accidentally leaked yesterday. The plan would put competing measures on the November ballot to “dilute votes” from the pro-abortion-rights initiative and offer voters another alternative: “a 14-week law disguised as a 15-week law,” as Republicans called it in the leaked document.
Republicans are facing intense pressure on both sides and that alternate plan is an attempt to split the difference — to repeal the ban that most Arizonans oppose, but placate the base by attempting to tank the expansion of abortion rights that is likely coming with the Arizonans for Abortion Access initiative.
On the one hand, many Republican politicians will likely lose their positions over this ruling if lawmakers don’t repeal the territorial-era ban. On the other hand, thousands of pro-life activists plan to descend on the Capitol today to urge Republicans to uphold the 1864 ban. Voting to repeal it is a surefire way to lose your primary election.
Hanging their hangups on procedural motions and claiming they’re taking a principled stand on refusing to “roll” their leaders gives Republicans the cover they need to delay the decision to another day.
There’s nothing our Tucson Agenda colleague Curt loves more than geeking out on data, so today, he dove into several years’ worth of reports to provide you some of the context and numbers behind the abortion debates at the Capitol.
And there are a lot of numbers to sort through. The GOP-led Legislature consistently pushed for more detailed reporting on abortions over the past decade or so. As a result, the Arizona Department of Health Services puts out a meticulous report every year. Here are answers to some of the main questions about abortion in Arizona.
Also, tune in to today’s Tucson Agenda to hear from an assault survivor and a Southern Arizona non-profit that works with survivors on how they are coping after the state Supreme Court decision.
If you’re a paid subscriber, you can get a discount to our sister newsletter, the Tucson Agenda.
How many abortions are performed in Arizona every year?
The most recent numbers from 2022, show about 11,400. That was a drop from nearly 14,000 in 2021. Generally, over the past decade it’s been about 13,000 every year.
How many are after the 15-week cutoff that’s in one of Arizona’s abortion laws?
About 5%. The vast majority of abortions, about 10,800 in 2022, come much earlier in pregnancies. Two-thirds of all abortions are before 8 weeks.
How much of a difference would it make if legislators made it a 14-week cutoff?
That would outlaw about 200 more abortions each year.
Are many abortions in Arizona late-term?
Just 25 abortions were performed in 2022 after 21 weeks, although that was a drop from 227 the previous year and 169 the year before.
How are abortions performed?
It’s more or less evenly divided between surgical procedures and medication-induced abortions.
Where are abortions performed?
Nearly three-quarters are in Maricopa County, and another 13% are in Pima County. The numbers drop pretty quickly after that. Apache, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Mohave, Santa Cruz and Yuma counties all had less than 30 abortions in 2022.
How old are the people who get abortions?
The vast majority, 87%, are in their 20s and 30s. There were just 250 abortions in 2022 where the mother was 17 years old or younger.
How often do they already have a child?
A little less than half the time. It’s more common that they already have one, two, or three kids.
There’s a lot more in these reports than we can include here. If you want to dive in, here is the state’s archive of annual abortion reports.
Signed, sealed, disqualified: The signature challenges have poured in for candidates in crowded primaries and with nomination petitions posing tight margins of errors, the Republic’s Mary Jo Pitzl reports. Two voters claimed they didn’t sign Republican Rep. Austin Smith’s nomination petitions despite appearing on them. Republican Sen. Wendy Rogers is challenging signatures for her GOP primary opponent, Rep. David Cook, while Democratic Sen. Priya Sundareshan is challenging her primary competitor Matt Welch’s signatures. In the House, challengers are targeting Democratic LD13 hopeful Shante Saulsberry and LD11 Democrats Michael Butts and Izaak Ruiz.
Gavel happy: Senate Democratic leaders filed an ethics complaint against Senate President Warren Petersen and President Pro Tem T.J. Shope for violating procedures when Shope shut down senators' attempts to overturn the 1864 abortion ban last week, per the University of Arizona Don Bolles fellow Leah Britton. Sens. Mitzi Epstein and Lela Alston filed a six-page complaint alleging Shope didn’t recognize Sens. Anna Hernandez and Epstein when they made proper attempts to speak and instead adjourned the body. Shope told KJZZ’s Lauren Gilger he did follow the procedure and “If I had any regrets, I should have hit the gavel a little faster.”
Just take her word for it: Kari Lake’s campaign raised about $500,000 less than the $4.1 million it reported to the Republic on Sunday. Federal filings show the Senate candidate raised $3.6 million with $451,000 in campaign debt, Ronald Hansen reports. Meanwhile, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s campaign took $30,000 from political action committees throughout the last quarter, including $12,000 on the day she announced her retirement, Hansen also reports. Sinema reported spending $534,000 for security, lodging and travel, and has $10.2 million in campaign money left over.
The Santa Cruz conundrum: An environmental nonprofit ranked Arizona’s Santa Cruz River as the fourth most endangered river in the country in its latest annual report, the Daily Star’s Henry Brean writes. Nonprofits and local governments have poured money into improving the river’s conditions, but American Rivers ranked its status so dire because of 150 years of neglect, overuse and pollution.
“The threats from overallocation and pollution create an urgency to protect this iconic river,” said American Rivers’ Southwest Communications Director Sinjin Eberle.
Mayes plays mute: Attorney General Kris Mayes said she won’t entertain questions from the special House panel formed to investigate her, Capitol scribe Howie Fischer reports. The House panel sent Mayes a three-page letter asking to explain her refusal to defend a 2022 state law prohibiting transgender females from participating in female sports. Mayes’ spokesperson told Fischer she won’t enforce the law because she thinks it's unconstitutional.
In the nick of time: The Maricopa County Board of Supervisors appointed Democrat Junelle Cavero to take over for Rep. Marcelino Quiñonez a day before the Legislature could vote on repealing the 1864 total abortion ban. Cavero brings the House Democrats back to full strength and will be sworn in this morning. She’s lived in Phoenix’s South Mountain community for a decade and traces her activism back to protesting SB 1070, Pitzl reports for the Republic.
Bucking the RINO allegations: Former Arizona Governor and Secretary of State Jan Brewer endorsed Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer for reelection over his opponent Rep. Justin Heap. Brewer called Richer “a proven conservative who has stood tall under immense pressure.”
Lawmakers are pretty busy this week, returning from their bourbon crawl in Tennessee, dealing with the abortion ruling fallout and still trying to figure out how to fix our more-than $1 billion budget deficit.
But you know they always have time for the annual legislative picnic and House Ducks versus Senate Eagles softball game complete with “free food and beverages.”
They throw the picnic for themselves every year and get lobbyists to pay for the whole affair.
We can’t tell you the score of last night’s game because we don’t care!
Also, here’s some footage of last week’s bourbon crawl lobbyist fundraiser.
In a very long and nerdy footnote.
That’s assuming House Democrats’ latest appointee takes their seat tomorrow, bringing the caucus back to 29 members.
In the House, the list is allegedly Cook, Gress, Tim Dunn and Justin Wilmeth. In the Senate, it’s allegedly T.J. Shope, Sine Kerr, David Gowan and Ken Bennett.
If Republicans join with Democrats to repeal this antiquated abortion law...Cathi Herrod will have an aneurysm.
You cover crazy people so I don’t have to. Thanks. Waiting with baited breath to see what happens today. To repeal or not to repeal, that is the million dollar question.