About your analysis of CD2: I guess it depends how one might view the phrase "very much a longshot", but here are a couple of reasons why I wouldn't have described it that way. (1) Planscore (a part of the Campaign Legal Center) has a probabilistic model for our final redistricted maps, and that model gives the Dems a 23% chance in that district. Pretty far from 50%, sure, but 1 in 4 happens, oh, about 1/4 of the time. And yes, I know it's just a model, but it's the best statistical one I know of for Congressional maps. And (2) Crane has showed himself to be among the very most willing to burn the House down with his tactics and statements in the current Speaker mess, and with his other MAGA statements. In other words, while he would certainly win a Republican primary in that district (if there were one), his extremism may work against him, particularly against someone with strong name recognition there like Nez, who can probably expect strong turnout from supporters. So overall, I guess I would say something like "tough slog" or something like that rather than "very much a long shot."
Am I quibbling about language? Sorry. The caffeine hasn't kicked in yet.
Wasn’t Debbie Lesko one of our illustrious fake electors? Are you sure she wants to spend more time with family or just ‘go away’ in case the DOJ start looking at AZ?
Sevens Dems running in CD 1 against Schweikert? As of 12:45 p.m., W., 10/18, the SecState continues to list six: Marlene, Conor, Amish, Kurt, Andrew, Andrei.* That said, "Congressional Scramble" today was a GREAT report.
If I was a registered Democrat (I'm not despite appearances otherwise) I would be thrilled that a.D candidate got strong cross aisle financial support.
But I'm more interested in winning a seat than standing on the highest moral ground and throwing my shield at my feet.
As a Recovering Republican I know several of those named in your column. Their relationships go back. Way back. And they remained friends and supporters of Grant even after he changed the color of the one tie he still.owned.
Just for fun, Hank, ask Jason Rose his favorite Grant Woods story. Then see if he'll tell you who coached his Little League baseball team.
The strongest allies are the ones that stick with you even when you change teams. Gronkowski made it simple when asked why he left the Patriots. "Whereever Tom goes I follow. I like winning more than my zip code."
Laura Pastor dropped out of the CD3 race in August. Did she change her mind and drop back in?
About your analysis of CD2: I guess it depends how one might view the phrase "very much a longshot", but here are a couple of reasons why I wouldn't have described it that way. (1) Planscore (a part of the Campaign Legal Center) has a probabilistic model for our final redistricted maps, and that model gives the Dems a 23% chance in that district. Pretty far from 50%, sure, but 1 in 4 happens, oh, about 1/4 of the time. And yes, I know it's just a model, but it's the best statistical one I know of for Congressional maps. And (2) Crane has showed himself to be among the very most willing to burn the House down with his tactics and statements in the current Speaker mess, and with his other MAGA statements. In other words, while he would certainly win a Republican primary in that district (if there were one), his extremism may work against him, particularly against someone with strong name recognition there like Nez, who can probably expect strong turnout from supporters. So overall, I guess I would say something like "tough slog" or something like that rather than "very much a long shot."
Am I quibbling about language? Sorry. The caffeine hasn't kicked in yet.
Wasn’t Debbie Lesko one of our illustrious fake electors? Are you sure she wants to spend more time with family or just ‘go away’ in case the DOJ start looking at AZ?
The Rachael Sedgwick piece made me laugh out loud - thank you for that :-)
Santa Cruz County is on pins & needles.
Sevens Dems running in CD 1 against Schweikert? As of 12:45 p.m., W., 10/18, the SecState continues to list six: Marlene, Conor, Amish, Kurt, Andrew, Andrei.* That said, "Congressional Scramble" today was a GREAT report.
*https://apps.arizona.vote/electioninfo/SOI/46
If I was a registered Democrat (I'm not despite appearances otherwise) I would be thrilled that a.D candidate got strong cross aisle financial support.
But I'm more interested in winning a seat than standing on the highest moral ground and throwing my shield at my feet.
As a Recovering Republican I know several of those named in your column. Their relationships go back. Way back. And they remained friends and supporters of Grant even after he changed the color of the one tie he still.owned.
Just for fun, Hank, ask Jason Rose his favorite Grant Woods story. Then see if he'll tell you who coached his Little League baseball team.
The strongest allies are the ones that stick with you even when you change teams. Gronkowski made it simple when asked why he left the Patriots. "Whereever Tom goes I follow. I like winning more than my zip code."