In speaking about LD16, you said "Unlike the previous four, this one is only competitive on paper." I would agree that of the five, various measures show this one to be more challenging for Democrats (including winning 0 of 9 previous selected elections, as you mentioned). That being said, if you look at other measures, such as planscore's probabilistic model, it only looks a little less likely for Democrats than a couple of the other 4 "competitive" districts; that model suggested a 1 in 4 chance. (538's probabilistic model in 2016 gave Trump a 1 in 3 chance of winning, so 1 in 4 is far from zero). In contrast, in "safe" districts, the planscore model gives one side <1% chance and the other side >99% chance. And we have a lot of those uncompetitive districts in this state, as you've noted. So LD16 is competitive enough that the usual factors (candidate, campaign, events) can swing the result either way, though "on paper" it will be somewhat tougher for Democrats.
But I appreciate your going through the list of "competitive" districts. Many people made the point to the IRC last year about how important competitiveness was, but that public concern didn't get translated into the outcomes.
Love it, but this will go over the heads of most of us (including unfortunately probably my own). We will forgive you the long posts but suggest you try to format them in the future in 1000-2000 word essays. They will be more effective and reach many more people!
In speaking about LD16, you said "Unlike the previous four, this one is only competitive on paper." I would agree that of the five, various measures show this one to be more challenging for Democrats (including winning 0 of 9 previous selected elections, as you mentioned). That being said, if you look at other measures, such as planscore's probabilistic model, it only looks a little less likely for Democrats than a couple of the other 4 "competitive" districts; that model suggested a 1 in 4 chance. (538's probabilistic model in 2016 gave Trump a 1 in 3 chance of winning, so 1 in 4 is far from zero). In contrast, in "safe" districts, the planscore model gives one side <1% chance and the other side >99% chance. And we have a lot of those uncompetitive districts in this state, as you've noted. So LD16 is competitive enough that the usual factors (candidate, campaign, events) can swing the result either way, though "on paper" it will be somewhat tougher for Democrats.
But I appreciate your going through the list of "competitive" districts. Many people made the point to the IRC last year about how important competitiveness was, but that public concern didn't get translated into the outcomes.
Love it, but this will go over the heads of most of us (including unfortunately probably my own). We will forgive you the long posts but suggest you try to format them in the future in 1000-2000 word essays. They will be more effective and reach many more people!
Congratulations on your first year!
Happy birthday!